THE WAR POTENTIAL OF TALIBAN

Brigadier {Retired} Mohammad Yousaf

The war potential of nations consist of the resources such as manpower, economic resources and administrative skills. War potential appeared to have played decisive role in the outcome of conventional wars. However in guerilla warfare motivation or will to fight plays a predominant role. Military strategists have long honoured this distinction. The ability and will to fight are not entirely independent factors. Up to a point, they support each other; and up to a point, the one can substantiate the other.  

 Talibans are neither trained nor equipped for a conventional war. His war potential except in the manpower has no match to a super power but the geography of Afghanistan favours a guerilla war. Strategically the terrain favours Taliban. The high, barren, Rocky Mountains of Afghanistan provides refuge and cover from the air.

 When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in late December 1979, the geo-political environments were different. It was an era of cold war between the two super powers, Russia and the US. Pakistan faced a highly dangerous situation. To the east was hostile India, while now to the west, the Soviets had occupied Afghanistan. This was a dangerous situation and the likelihood of Pakistan being squeezed out of existence was a real possibility. Pakistan was left with no option but to provide help to Afghans covertly. The US, Saudi Arabia and China soon followed with material support. The US support to freedom fighters was for their national interests and not for the sake of democracy or love for Afghan Mujahideen. The US saw a chance to avenge their defeat in Vietnam.

Today the geo-political and operational environments are totally different. The whole world has united against the terrorism, the government of Taliban. The Central Asian states, having Muslim majority in their countries, are scared of the spill over of Islamic fundamentalism™ across their border. This is the case with China who has majority of Muslims in their southern provinces. Iran has its own sectarian problem with Talibans.

 Pakistan had been supporting the Afghans for the last 20 years or so and had played a major role in consolidating the regime of Taliban. She was the first country to recognize their Government and had been their active supporter but failed to convince Taliban to hand over Usama Bin Laden to US. She was left with no choice but to join hands with the rest of the world to combat against Taliban. A decision, which will have far reaching effects on the future of Pak-Afghan relations.

 There have been ugly demonstrations led by Islamic fundamentalist parties in various parts of Pakistan against the decision of the government. The demonstrations are NOT in favour of terrorism but against the US policy towards the Islamic countries in general and towards Palestinians in particular. Albeit, some genuinely feel that Usama Bin Laden was not involved in the 11^th September incident due to lack of information provided by the US newsmedia.

 The recognized criteria necessary for an armed resistance movement to succeed is: first, a loyal people who would support the effort at great risk to themselves, a local population, the majority of whom would supply shelter, food, recruits and information. Second, the need to believe implicitly in the cause and for him to be willing to sacrifice himself completely to achieve victory. Third, is the favourable terrain with over two-thirds of Afghanistan covered by inhospitable mountains known only to the local people. Fourth, a safe haven - a secure base area to which the guerrilla could withdraw to refit and rest without fear of attack. Fifth, and possibly most important of all, a resistance movement needs outside backers, who will not only represent his cause in international councils, but are a bountiful source of funds.

 The Talibans have all the basic attributes of successful guerrilla fighters. They believe passionately in their cause; they are physically and mentally tough; they know their area of operations intimately; they are extremely courageous with an inbred affinity for weapons, and they operate from mountain areas, which give them both sanctuary and succour. But they stand isolated. They wont find a safe haven in Pakistan, nor any outside help from anywhere. They will have to fight the battle alone till the last round but not the last man.

 Any attempt by Taliban to fight a conventional war or a pitch battle to defend cities, towns, airfields and other vital ground would be suicidal. Their strength lies in the guerilla war only. On the other hand, the US seems to be relying heavily on airpower to compensate for their inability to meet Taliban on equal terms on the ground. At the tactical as well as strategic level the US is depending heavily on firepower, rather than infantry manpower, to destroy their elusive opponents; and this alone would not defeat the Taliban. The Americans, seems to be following the same old tactics of Vietnam, search and destroy, by pounding it from the air. So far, the gigantic air strikes and missile attacks carried out by US and Great Britain all over Afghanistan have failed to make any dent on the will to fight, the ultimate aim of such strikes.

 Notwithstanding the above, the US is relying more on the Northern Alliance to fight the ground battle to achieve her aims and objectives in Afghanistan. She may also find mercenaries, soldiers from other countries to fight a proxy war for her thereby protecting her own forces.

 There is no doubt that Americans, sooner or later, will be able to gain control over the cities, towns and other vital areas through the Northern Alliance or by sending large numbers of ground forces consisting of multi-nationalities. And so is the prospect of getting Usama Bin laden dead or alive a near possibility, if HE is still in Afghanistan.

 No matter what the outcome of war may be, the Taliban will continue to remain a force in being for years if not decades. There will be no peace, no stability in Afghanistan for a long time beyond the imagination of the world. The infighting amongst the Afghan will continue in the rural areas and peace would be a distant dream.